MetService forecasts led to inaccurate flood modelling for Cyclone Gabrielle

Monday 13 October 2025 · 2 outlets · 2 reports · updated Mon 13 Oct 2025, 8:44pm

In this story MetService, Hawke's Bay Regional Council

At a coroner's inquest in Hastings, a principal engineer testified that Cyclone Gabrielle damage estimations relied on MetService rain predictions that were significantly lower than actual rainfall. A hydrologist noted that while the cyclone was expected to resemble the 2018 Esk Valley flood, the peak water discharge was more than double that amount.

How they headlined it

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1. StuffMon 13 Oct 2025, 4:52pm

   Cyclone Gabrielle inquest: MetService forecast led to flood modelling underplaying effects (opens in new tab)

2. RNZMon 13 Oct 2025, 8:44pm

   Cyclone Gabrielle inquest: 'Unlikely' the magnitude of flooding could be accurately forecast, expert says (opens in new tab)