Ministry modelling suggests more students may fail new secondary curriculum

Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 4 outlets · 2 reports · updated Tue 20 Oct, 5:00am

In this story Erica Stanford, Ministry of Education, Post Primary Teachers' Association, Chris Abercrombie

Documents released under the Official Information Act show the Education Ministry's modelling predicts high failure rates for the new secondary school qualification. While an optimistic scenario suggests nearly 30% of Year 12 students could fail, a pessimistic estimate indicates the figure could reach almost half.

How they headlined it

5am

1. The PostTue 20 Oct, 5:00am

   Education Ministry’s ‘optimistic’ modelling shows thousands more students failing new secondary curriculum (opens in new tab)

2. RNZTue 20 Oct, 5:00am

   Thousands more could fail new school qualification (opens in new tab)

   Also on NZ Herald (opens in new tab), Otago Daily Times (opens in new tab)