Rising fuel prices impact New Zealand business confidence
Wednesday 30 September 2026 · 2 outlets · 2 reports · updated In this story ANZ
Business confidence in New Zealand eased by two points in September according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey. The decline follows a 22% increase in retail fuel prices over the past month. Despite this, optimists still outnumber pessimists and the impact is less severe than the initial oil shock in April.
Key facts
4 facts
- Topline business confidence fell two points to approximately 52 in September
- Retail fuel prices rose nearly 22% in the last month
- Inflation expectations remained stable at 3.25%
- Dubai spot oil prices peaked at US$128 during the month
The full story
1 min read · 2 outlets
New Zealand business confidence eased in September as rising fuel prices began to impact sentiment. Topline business confidence fell by two points to 51.9 or 52. While optimists still outnumber pessimists, activity indicators weakened among firms that responded later in the month following a sharp rise in oil prices.
The Dubai spot oil price rose from approximately US$100 a barrel to a peak of US$128 before settling at US$111 by 22 September. Retail fuel prices increased by almost 22% over the past month. This was compounded by a sharp fall in the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
Sector performance varied, with manufacturing and construction showing strength. Conversely, the retail, services, and agriculture sectors showed signs of cooling. In the retail sector, investment intentions were 2.2 and employment intentions were negative 10.9.
Inflation expectations remained steady at 3.25%. Although 81.9% or 82% of firms expect higher costs, the net share of firms planning to raise prices fell to 48.4% or 48%. ANZ senior economist Miles Workman described the current economic state as a "bumpy recovery".
Where reports differ
- Reports provide slightly different figures for headline confidence (52 vs 51.9) and reported activity (11 vs 10.8)
Compiled from reports by NZ Herald and RNZ.
