June 2025 quarter economic contraction

The story so far

Economists expected New Zealand's economy to contract by up to 0.5 percent in the June quarter, as cautious consumer spending and job security concerns stalled growth, with recovery pushed out to 2026.^{15 Sep 2025} Primary production, manufacturing and construction led the declines, while telecommunications, media, public spending and rental sectors expanded.^{18 Sep 2025} Finance Minister Nicola Willis attributed the contraction to international uncertainty from US tariffs, but Labour rejected this, blaming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and noting Australia's economy kept growing in the same period.^{18 Sep 2025}

Latest

The 0.9 percent contraction was confirmed, and the political debate over its cause followed, with Willis citing US tariffs and Labour blaming Luxon.^{18 Sep 2025}

Key moments

1. 15 Sep 2025Economists forecast a June quarter contraction of up to 0.5 percent, with recovery delayed to 2026.
2. 18 Sep 2025Stats NZ reports GDP fell 0.9 percent, worse than the expected 0.3 to 0.5 percent.
3. 18 Sep 2025Primary production, manufacturing and construction led the declines in the June quarter.
4. 18 Sep 2025Willis attributes the shrinkage to international uncertainty from US tariffs.
5. 18 Sep 2025Labour rejects that explanation, blaming Luxon and noting Australia's economy continued growing.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.