Political polls early 2025

The story so far

Labour overtook National in the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll in January 2025, its first lead since April 2023, with Labour on 30.9 per cent and National on 29.6 per cent.^{17 Jan 2025} Two polls in February suggested that Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori together would have enough support to form a government if an election were held then, as National's support had fallen.^{10 Feb 2025} In early March, Labour moved ahead of National again in a new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, and Chris Hipkins overtook Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister.^{10 Mar 2025} The March poll put Labour at 34.1 per cent and National at 33.6 per cent, and the Prime Minister said he was focused on New Zealanders rather than polling.^{10 Mar 2025}

Key moments

1. 17 Jan 2025Labour takes poll lead over National for first time since April 2023.
2. 10 Feb 2025Two polls show Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori could form government.
3. 10 Mar 2025Labour moves ahead of National again; Hipkins overtakes Luxon as preferred PM.
4. 10 Mar 2025Labour 34.1 per cent, National 33.6 per cent; Hipkins leads preferred PM poll.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.