Labour and National election polling 2026

The story so far

Before the election, an Ipsos Issues Monitor poll showed Labour leading National on all of the top five voter issues, and petrol prices had reached a record-high level of concern.^{2 Nov} The final 1News Verian poll before Saturday's election had National at 30% and Labour at 29%, with both gaining support while ACT and NZ First declined, and the Opportunity party could hold a kingmaker position.^{3 Nov} An RNZ-Reid Research poll put National at 24.8 percent and Labour at 30.6 percent, and found nearly one in five former 2023 National voters had moved to ACT or NZ First, though Labour was still the largest beneficiary of that shift.^{3 Nov} The final The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll showed Labour 4.3 points ahead of National, and the election was described as one of the tightest in a generation, with minor parties potentially deciding who forms the next government.^{5 Nov}

Latest

The final The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll had Labour 4.3 points ahead of National, with polls closing on Saturday.^{5 Nov}

What's next

Polls close on Saturday, when the election result will be determined.^{5 Nov} Minor parties could decide which party forms the next government, according to the stories.^{5 Nov}

Key moments

1. 2 NovIpsos poll shows Labour leading National on all top five voter issues.
2. 3 NovFinal 1News Verian poll: National 30%, Labour 29%, a one-point gap.
3. 3 NovRNZ-Reid Research: National falls to 24.8%, Labour at 30.6%.
4. 5 NovFinal Post/Freshwater poll has Labour 4.3 points ahead of National.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.