National leads Labour by one point in final pre-election poll

The final 1News Verian poll before Saturday's election shows a tight race with no party holding a clear lead. National is currently at 30%, one point ahead of Labour at 29%. The Greens have 16% support, while ACT and New Zealand First have both fallen two points to 10% and 8% respectively.

The election outcome may depend on whether the Opportunity Party reaches the 5% threshold, as it currently sits at 6%. If Opportunity enters Parliament with seven seats, it could hold the balance of power. This could be complicated by potential seat overhangs from either National or Te Pāti Māori.

If Te Pāti Māori wins three to five seats, it could trigger an overhang on the left. In a 125-seat Parliament, the left bloc (Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori) would hold 60 seats, meaning they would need Opportunity's seven seats to reach 67 and form a government. Conversely, the right bloc would hold 58 seats, also requiring Opportunity to reach a majority.

In preferred Prime Minister rankings, Christopher Luxon leads with 23%, while Chris Hipkins follows with 19%. Luxon stated that "the only poll that matters" is the one on Saturday. Hipkins said his party has "developed some real momentum" but noted, "It’s going to be a close election".

How it developed

• Tue 3 Nov, 7:04pmChristopher Luxon was touring the South Island and Wellington on the campaign trail.

Where reports differ

• One report notes National and Labour are neck-and-neck, while others specify National is one point ahead.

Compiled from reports by Newsroom, 1News, The Post, Otago Daily Times, RNZ and NZ Herald.