National support drops to 29% in latest 1News Verian poll

The National Party has fallen to 29% support in the latest 1News Verian poll, a three-point decrease from its previous result of 32%. Labour's support remained steady at 27%. The gap between the two major parties has narrowed as National's decline offsets Labour's stability.

National has called on Labour to clarify which Green Party policies it might adopt during potential future coalition negotiations. National leader Christopher Luxon declined to specify which policies from Act or New Zealand First the party would accept, stating, "The situation is quite different".

In the latest poll, ACT support rose to 12% and New Zealand First rose to 10%. The Opportunity Party fell to 6%, while the Green Party dropped to 15%. Te Pāti Māori fell to 0.1%, its lowest result on this poll.

The poll results suggest multiple paths to power depending on Māori electorate outcomes. If Te Pāti Māori holds only one seat, the right-wing coalition of National, ACT, and NZ First would have 61 seats, enough to govern. However, if Te Pāti Māori holds four seats and the Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi retains her seat, the total Parliament size increases to 125 MPs, leaving the right bloc two seats short of the 63 required. In this scenario, the Opportunity Party's eight seats would hold the balance of power.

How it developed

• Tue 27 Oct, 6:52pmThe report notes that the Opportunity Party's support has fallen two points across the last two polls.

Where reports differ

• Reports differ on the specific number of seats for Te Pāti Māori and the resulting total Parliament size based on different electorate scenarios

Compiled from reports by NZ Herald, 1News, The Post and Otago Daily Times.