New Zealand political polls October 2026

The story so far

Through October 2026, polls showed National and Labour close in party support, with neither major party clearly ahead. The Opportunity Party hovered around the 5 per cent threshold and was seen as a potential kingmaker, while Christopher Luxon ruled out working with it. A Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll projected the coalition Government would keep a majority, helped by a rise for New Zealand First. Hipkins and Luxon held three debates, and Stuff readers voted Hipkins the winner of the final one. Polls later showed Hipkins extending his preferred prime minister lead, and a 1News Verian poll showed National rising to 32% before falling back to 29%.^{6, 7, 13, 16, 20, 27 Oct} Mid-campaign coverage described a stalemate, with both major parties stuck in the late 20s. Commentary noted falling party loyalty and suggested that many undecided voters could decide the result.^{19, 23 Oct}

Latest

The latest 1News Verian poll has National at 29% and Labour at 27%, and National has asked Labour to clarify any policy concessions it might make to the Greens in future coalition talks.^{27 Oct}

Key moments

1. 6 OctEarly poll shows National and Labour neck and neck; Luxon rules out Opportunity Party.
2. 7 OctTaxpayers' Union-Curia poll projects coalition majority of 65 seats.
3. 16 OctAnacta poll has both major parties below 30%; Opportunity Party reaches 5%.
4. 19 OctCampaign halfway mark: National and Labour stuck in the late 20s.
5. 20 OctStuff readers name Hipkins winner of final leaders' debate, narrowly.
6. 20 OctPost/Freshwater poll has Labour 29.7%, National 27.6%, Opportunity Party 5.4%.
7. 20 OctHipkins extends preferred prime minister lead to 13 points.
8. 20 OctNational surges to 32% in 1News Verian poll; Labour falls to 27%.
9. 27 OctNational drops to 29% in latest 1News Verian poll; Labour steady at 27%.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.