National and Labour neck and neck in latest poll

The PostNZ HeraldRNZStuff1NewsTuesday 6 October 2026 · 5 outlets · 15 reports · updated

In this story Christopher Luxon, Labour Party, National Party, ACT Party, NZ First, Chris Hipkins

Photo: NZ Herald (opens in new tab)

The latest 1News Verian poll shows National at 29% and Labour at 28%. The Opportunity Party is forecast to hold the balance of power with 7% of the vote. National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with the party.

Key facts

7 facts
  • 1News Verian poll conducted between 1 October and 5 October 20261NewsNZ HeraldStuff
  • National Party support at 29%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuffRNZ
  • Labour Party support at 28%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuffRNZ
  • Opportunity Party support at 7%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuffRNZ
  • Green Party support at 16%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuffRNZ
  • NZ First support at 10%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldRNZ
  • ACT support at 9%1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldRNZ

The full story

1 min read · 5 outlets

The National Party has risen one percentage point to 29% while Labour remains steady at 28% in the latest 1News Verian poll. This result places both major parties in the 20s, following an earlier RNZ Reid-Research poll that showed National at 25.9% and Labour at 30.8%.Stuff1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldRNZ

The Opportunity Party has increased its support to 7%, which would grant it eight seats and the role of kingmaker. Both the right-wing bloc and the left-wing bloc are forecast to tie with 58 seats each, meaning Opportunity would decide which coalition forms the next government.1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuffRNZ

National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity due to their land value tax policy. Luxon stated, "We want to work with parties that want no new taxes. It’s as simple as that". Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong described this stance as "old school politics".1News

In preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon leads with 20%, while Chris Hipkins has risen to 18%. Other leaders include Winston Peters at 9%, Chlöe Swarbrick at 7%, David Seymour at 5%, and Kieran McAnulty at 2%.1NewsThe PostNZ HeraldStuff

How it developed

  • Tue 6 Oct, 7:10pmThe report notes that the 1News Verian poll had a higher undecided vote of 11% compared to 6% in the RNZ-Reid Research poll.RNZ

Where reports differ

  • The RNZ-Reid Research poll placed Labour ahead of National by 5 points, whereas the 1News Verian poll has National ahead by 1 point.RNZ

Compiled from reports by Stuff, 1News, The Post, NZ Herald and RNZ.

How they headlined it

First reported by The Post, Tue 6 Oct, 6:16am · 15 reports from 5 outlets over 46 hours
  1. The PostThe Post via RNZ

    National crashes to new low of 25.9% in RNZ poll, Greens surge, Opportunity kingmaker (opens in new tab)

  2. NZ HeraldNZ Herald

    RNZ-Reid Research poll: National crashes, Green Party surges, Opportunity kingmaker (opens in new tab)

  3. RNZRNZ

    RNZ-Reid Research poll: Nightmare on National Street while Greens soar (opens in new tab)

  4. StuffStuff

    The centre vote has collapsed. National and Labour have 4 weeks to pick up the pieces (opens in new tab)

  5. 1News1News

    Poll: Opportunity still in kingmaker seat as Greens hold strong (opens in new tab)