National surges to 32% in latest 1News Verian poll

The National Party has risen four points to 32% in the latest 1News Verian poll, creating a five-point lead over Labour. Labour's support has dropped one point to 27%, marking its lowest result since the previous election. This polling was conducted between 15 and 19 October 2026, involving 1003 people via mobile phone and online panels.

The political landscape suggests Opportunity, currently at 7%, remains in a kingmaker position. Both the right and left blocs would require Opportunity's support to form a government based on these figures. National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity due to their tax programme, though Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong suggested this could change if coalition parties fall short of a majority.

In preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon remains stable at 20%, while Chris Hipkins has fallen three points to 17%. Winston Peters has risen one point to 8% in the same rankings. Other leaders include Chlöe Swarbrick at 7% and David Seymour at 5%.

Other party results show the Greens up one point to 16%, ACT up one point to 11%, and New Zealand First down two points to 8%. Te Pāti Māori sits at 0.7%. The poll results were released as the leaders prepared for a debate hosted by Stuff.

Where reports differ

• Reports differ on the number of electorate seats Te Pāti Māori might win, with some assuming four and others assuming one

Compiled from reports by 1News, NZ Herald, The Post, Stuff, RNZ and Otago Daily Times.