Coalition projected to retain majority in latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll
Wednesday 7 October 2026 · 5 outlets · 9 reports · updated In this story Christopher Luxon, Labour Party, National Party, ACT Party, NZ First, Chris Hipkins
The coalition Government is projected to secure 65 seats in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll. While National and Labour remain close in support, a surge for New Zealand First has extended the coalition's lead. The Opportunity Party sits just below the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament.
Key facts
6 facts
- Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll conducted between 1-5 October 2026
- National party support at 28.5%
- Labour party support at 28.2%
- New Zealand First support at 12%
- Opportunity Party support at 4.8%
- Poll surveyed 1000 people via phone and online
The full story
1 min read · 4 outlets
The current coalition of National, Act, and New Zealand First is projected to hold 65 seats, securing a majority in Parliament. This result follows a surge in support for New Zealand First, which rose 3.6 percentage points to 12%. National holds 28.5% of the vote, while Labour has increased its support to 28.2%.
The Opportunity Party recorded 4.8% support, falling just short of the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament without an electorate seat. Due to a 3.1% margin of error, the pollster noted there is a 42% chance the party is actually above the 5% threshold. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong is campaigning for the Mt Albert electorate seat to bypass this requirement.
In the Mt Albert electorate poll, Labour's Helen White led with 31%, followed by National's Melissa Lee at 26%. Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March received 18%, while Wong was ranked fourth with 8%. In the preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon remains at 21.2%, while Chris Hipkins rose to 21%.
National has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, while Labour is encouraging Opportunity supporters to vote strategically for Labour. Meanwhile, National has announced a plan for random drug testing for Jobseeker beneficiaries, a move opposed by Labour, the Greens, and New Zealand First.
Where reports differ
- The preferred Prime Minister jump for Chris Hipkins is reported as 4.1 points in some reports and four points in others
Compiled from reports by NZ Herald, Stuff, RNZ and Otago Daily Times.
