New poll shows Labour leading National in neck-and-neck election

A new The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows the 2026 election is on a knife-edge, with neither major party able to form a government without the Opportunity Party. Labour leads National by a narrow margin, with results ranging from 28.7% to 29.7% for Labour and 27.6% for National. The Opportunity Party sits at 5.4%, just above the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament.

If Opportunity secures seven MPs, it could provide a narrow 61-seat majority to a Labour-led bloc or a 66-seat majority to a National-led bloc. Currently, National, ACT, and NZ First would hold a combined 59 seats, which is two short of the 61 seats needed to govern. Meanwhile, Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori would hold 54 seats.

The election enters its final stretch with early voting beginning next Monday. Leaders Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are scheduled to face off in a final major debate hosted by Stuff and The Post.

Voter sentiment remains largely pessimistic, with 54% of respondents believing the country is on the wrong track. In the Te Tai Tokerau electorate, a Whakaata Māori-Curia poll suggests the Greens could pick up their first Māori electorate, with Hūhana Lyndon leading the race with 24% support.

How it developed

• Tue 20 Oct, 12:24pmThe report notes Labour leads National by 2.1 percentage points.

Where reports differ

• Reports vary on Labour's exact percentage, citing 28.7% and 29.7%.

Compiled from reports by The Post, Stuff, NZ Herald, RNZ and Otago Daily Times.