Minor parties could decide next government in tight election race
Thursday 1 October 2026 · 3 outlets · 3 reports · updated In this story Labour Party, National Party, Green Party
With five weeks until the election, major parties are tied in recent polling while minor parties surge. Five minor parties are currently polling near or above the 5% threshold, potentially deciding who will form the next government.
Key facts
4 facts
- Election date is 7 November
- National and Labour both polled at 28% in the latest 1News-Verian poll
- The Greens polled at 16%, their highest ever result in that poll
- ACT polled at 11%, NZ First at 9%, Opportunity at 6%, and Te Pāti Māori at 1%
The full story
1 min read · 3 outlets
Five minor parties are set to debate their potential roles in the next government ahead of the election on 7 November. The debate features Winston Peters, David Seymour, Chlöe Swarbrick, Qiulae Wong, and Rawiri Waititi.
The latest 1News-Verian poll shows National and Labour both at 28%. The Greens have reached a record high of 16%, which could result in 19 Green MPs.
Other polling results include ACT at 11%, NZ First at 9%, Opportunity at 6%, and Te Pāti Māori at 1%. Political commentators suggest the Opportunity Party will be a critical element in the election.
National leader Chris Luxon has ruled out a coalition with the Opportunity Party. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has not ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, though he noted the party has internal issues to resolve.
Where reports differ
- Tim Watkin believes the Opportunity Party will be a game changer but not a kingmaker, whereas Guyon Espiner suggests they are game changers or deal breakers
Compiled from reports by The Press, RNZ and Newsroom.
How they headlined it
More on Opinion polls ahead of 2026 election
- Letters discuss political campaigns and potential coalition agreements
- No land tax or 'citizens' income' in Opportunity's bottom lines
+1 - Greens eye key portfolios following surge in latest poll+1
- No, it wasn’t a rogue poll. Chris Hipkins and Labour’s trend is down – Heather du Plessis-Allan
- Chris Hipkins dismisses latest poll showing Labour support in mid-20s
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