Opinion polls ahead of 2026 election

The story so far

In early August 2026 a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll had Labour at 27.8%, its lowest since December 2024, while the Opportunity Party rose to 6.1%, above the 5% threshold for entering Parliament.^{7 Aug} A 1News Verian poll a few days later put Opportunity at 8% and showed neither the left nor right bloc able to govern alone, leaving Opportunity in a possible kingmaker position.^{12 Aug} An Anacta/Talbot Mills poll showed National out of government and Chris Hipkins overtaking Christopher Luxon as preferred Prime Minister.^{14 Aug} In September a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll had National and Labour both below 30% for the first time, with Labour at 25.9%, while Opportunity fell back to 4.5%.^{7 Sep} Hipkins said the only poll that matters is the final election result, and a later corporate poll had Labour ahead of National, with neither bloc able to govern alone.^{7 Sep}

Latest

The Green Party rose to 16% in a 1News Verian poll, and co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the party would seek high-profile portfolios if it helps form government, though Hipkins said she would not be finance minister in a Labour-led government.^{28 Sep} With five weeks to the election, the major parties were tied in recent polling and five minor parties were polling near or above the 5% threshold, so they could decide the next government.^{1 Oct}

Key moments

1. 7 AugLabour falls to 27.8% while Opportunity passes the 5% threshold at 6.1%.
2. 12 Aug1News Verian poll puts Opportunity at 8%, a possible kingmaker.
3. 14 AugTalbot Mills poll shows National out of government and Hipkins ahead as preferred PM.
4. 7 SepNational and Labour both drop below 30% for the first time.
5. 7 SepHipkins dismisses Labour's 25.9% result, saying only the election result matters.
6. 28 SepGreens reach 16% and Hipkins rules out Swarbrick as finance minister.
7. 1 OctFive minor parties polling near or above 5% could decide the government.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.