New Zealand political polls 2025

The story so far

Through mid-2025, several polls showed National and Labour losing support while New Zealand First, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori gained. Polls also gave conflicting views on who would govern, with one suggesting the current Government would be re-elected and another a Labour-led coalition. In June, Labour overtook National in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, but neither major party could govern alone and the coalition would keep power. By July, New Zealand First had become the third most popular party in that poll, and Talbot Mills polling suggested the coalition would lose power if an election were held immediately. In August, polls pointed to a hung Parliament and a tight National-Labour race, while Christopher Luxon's preferred prime minister rating fell to a two-year low. From September, National's support fell further, with Labour leading in some polls and both Luxon and Chris Hipkins recording low approval. By October, one poll put National below 30 per cent. After a capital gains tax announcement in November, Labour's support rose, with one poll showing 38 per cent, yet a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll still had the coalition holding power.^{3, 4, 5, 12 Jun 2025; 10, 22 Jul 2025; 11, 12 Aug 2025; 8, 17 Sep 2025; 8, 15 Oct 2025; 12, 13 Nov 2025} In a December Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll, Labour was ahead of National in the party vote.^{10 Dec 2025}

Latest

The latest Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll shows Labour ahead of National, but the coalition would retain government with a combined 61 seats if an election were held today.^{10 Dec 2025}

Key moments

1. 4 Jun 2025RNZ-Reid poll suggests left bloc could remove coalition government from power
2. 12 Jun 2025Labour overtakes National in Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll
3. 10 Jul 2025New Zealand First becomes third most popular party after 3.7-point rise
4. 22 Jul 2025Talbot Mills polling suggests coalition would lose power if election held now
5. 11 Aug 2025Poll predicts hung Parliament with centre-left and centre-right blocs tied on 61 seats
6. 8 Oct 2025National support drops below 30 per cent in Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll
7. 12 Nov 2025Labour support rises 2.1 points after capital gains tax announcement
8. 13 Nov 2025Labour reaches 38 per cent, its highest polling level in three years

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.