Te Tai Tonga electorate race 2026

The story so far

Te Tai Tonga is New Zealand's largest electorate, covering the South Island, Stewart Island, the Chatham Islands and parts of central Wellington.^{14 Oct} A Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori put Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden ahead on 30 per cent, with Te Pāti Māori's Lisa Marie Murch on 17 per cent and incumbent MP Tākuta Ferris on 15 per cent.^{29 Sep} Ferris, now an independent MP, said at a Māori seat debate with four candidates that he is open to a coalition with National, Act and New Zealand First if it ensures his electorate has a voice.^{30 Sep} Candidates also held the first election debate on the Chatham Islands, attended by about 40 residents.^{2 Oct}

Latest

Recent polls suggest the Te Tai Tonga race is expected to be highly competitive and remains wide open.^{14 Oct} The seven Māori seats may influence the formation of the next government.^{14 Oct}

Key moments

1. 29 SepPoll shows Labour's Mananui Ramsden leading Te Tai Tonga on 30 per cent.
2. 30 SepIndependent MP Tākuta Ferris says he is open to coalition with National, Act, NZ First.
3. 2 OctFirst-ever election debate held on the Chatham Islands, with about 40 residents attending.
4. 14 OctTe Tai Tonga race described as wide open, with Māori seats possibly shaping government.

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.