Labour candidate leads in Te Tai Tonga polling

NZ HeraldThe PressRNZTuesday 29 September 2026 · 3 outlets · 3 reports · updated

In this story Labour Party, National Party, Te Pāti Māori, Tākuta Ferris, Whakaata Māori, Curia

Photo: NZ Herald (opens in new tab)

A new Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori shows Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden leading the Te Tai Tonga electorate race with 30 per cent support. Te Pāti Māori's Lisa Marie Murch follows at 17 per cent, while incumbent MP Tākuta Ferris trails at 15 per cent.

Key facts

5 facts
  • Mananui Ramsden leads Te Tai Tonga candidate vote with 30 per centNZ HeraldThe PressRNZ
  • Poll conducted between 14 and 24 September by Curia Market ResearchNZ HeraldRNZ
  • Sample size of 500 Māori voters aged 18 and olderRNZ
  • Margin of error is +/- 4.5 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence levelNZ HeraldRNZ
  • Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi is the top priority for 30 per cent of respondentsThe PressRNZ

The full story

1 min read · 3 outlets

Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden is leading the race for the Te Tai Tonga electorate with 30 per cent support, according to a new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll. He holds a 13-point lead over Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch, who received 17 per cent. Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga follows with 16 per cent, while incumbent independent MP Tākuta Ferris is in fourth place with 15 per cent.NZ HeraldThe PressRNZ

The poll, conducted between 14 and 24 September, has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 per cent. The survey sampled 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older, including 420 by phone and 80 via an online panel. Curia Market Research selected areas within the electorate where more than 25 per cent of the population is Māori.NZ HeraldRNZ

For the party vote, Labour leads with 28 per cent, followed by the Greens at 14 per cent and Te Pāti Māori at 11 per cent. National and New Zealand First both received 6 per cent. Other parties receiving support include Opportunity and Free Palestine, both at 4 per cent.NZ HeraldRNZ

Voters identified several key priorities for improving Māori outcomes, with honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi ranked highest at 30 per cent. Other priorities included reducing poverty and homelessness at 24 per cent, and improving health and education outcomes at 20 per cent.The PressRNZ

Where reports differ

  • One report lists the most important issues as cost-of-living, healthcare, jobs, environment, Te Tiriti o Waitangi and infrastructure, while another focuses on priorities for improving Māori outcomes such as Te Tiriti, poverty, and health.NZ HeraldThe PressRNZ

Compiled from reports by NZ Herald, The Press and RNZ.

How they headlined it

First reported by NZ Herald, Tue 29 Sep, 7:00am · 3 reports from 3 outlets over 12 hours
  1. NZ HeraldNZ Herald

    Election 2026: New poll reveals frontrunner in the Māori seat of Te Tai Tonga (opens in new tab)

  2. The PressThe Press via The Post

    Te Tai Tonga has changed since 2023, so has the race to represent it (opens in new tab)

  3. RNZRNZ

    Whakaata Māori-Curia poll reveals major shift in Te Tai Tonga race (opens in new tab)