El Niño poses environmental risks for Hawke’s Bay
Friday 2 October 2026 · 2 outlets · 2 reports · updated In this story Earth Sciences New Zealand, Hawke's Bay Regional Council
Hawke’s Bay regional councillors were briefed on Wednesday regarding potential El Niño impacts. The strengthening tropical Pacific conditions could lead to wildfires, poor water quality, algal blooms, and fish deaths. Integrated Catchment manager Richard Wakelin discussed the council's role if the region experiences extreme dry conditions.
Key facts
3 facts
- El Niño is a climate pattern where surface water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual.
- Previous El Niño periods in Hawke’s Bay occurred in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
- El Niño can lead to low river flows and high water temperatures, which may increase cyanobacteria and algae growth.
The full story
1 min read · 2 outlets
Hawke’s Bay is preparing for potential environmental impacts from El Niño, including wildfires, poor water quality, algal blooms, and fish deaths. Earth Sciences New Zealand released an October-November forecast on Thursday stating that "very strong El Niño conditions" are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to increase. This current event is forecast to be stronger than previous El Niño periods and may continue into next autumn.
The outlook for Hawke’s Bay suggests a 50% chance of above-average temperatures, with possible warm spells involving strong, gusty westerly winds. There is a 55% chance that rainfall totals will be below normal, while soil moisture and river flows have a 45% chance of being below normal and a 40% chance of being near normal.
Hawke’s Bay Regional Council (HBRC) will monitor ecological conditions, river flows, groundwater, and soil moisture. Integrated Catchment manager Richard Wakelin stated the council is not the primary responder, but will implement restrictions, such as water take restrictions, if necessary. The council intends to work with partners including iwi, hapū, Fish and Game, DOC, and Health NZ.
HBRC Chair Sophie Siers noted that while El Niño accounts for approximately 25% of the influences on Hawke’s Bay weather, it could be a significant event for eastern New Zealand. Deputy chair Jerf van Beek expressed concern that a severe event would seriously affect the population, particularly the farming community.
Compiled from reports by NZ Herald and 1News.
