El Niño and cyclone outlook 2026

The story so far

Earth Sciences New Zealand reported on 1 September that a rapidly intensifying El Niño could become one of the strongest in recent history, with windy weather and dry spells expected in northern and eastern areas and a risk of heavy rain and storms in the south and west this spring.^{2 Sep} By mid-September the strengthening El Niño was starting to be felt across Northland. In early October, Hawke's Bay regional councillors were briefed on possible impacts including wildfires, poor water quality, algal blooms and fish deaths.^{2 Oct} Hawke's Bay growers began preparing for a possible "Super El Niño" that could bring months of hot, dry weather, with local organic apple growers bracing for the shift after a wet period.^{9 Oct} Earth Sciences New Zealand also forecast seven to 11 named tropical cyclones for the Southwest Pacific this season, driven by El Niño, with at least four possibly reaching Category 3 or higher.^{14 Oct}

Latest

Canterbury farmers are bracing for potentially harsh summer conditions as El Niño strengthens, and some recall devastating past droughts.^{22 Oct} Authorities say the region's open-coast beaches are unlikely to see degraded water quality this season.^{22 Oct}

What's next

The Southwest Pacific cyclone season is expected to begin on 1 November.^{14 Oct}

Key moments

1. 2 SepEarth Sciences NZ warns El Niño could be one of the strongest on record
2. 2 OctHawke's Bay councillors briefed on wildfire, water quality and algal bloom risks
3. 9 OctHawke's Bay growers prepare for possible Super El Niño and months of dry weather
4. 14 OctSeven to 11 tropical cyclones forecast for the Southwest Pacific this season
5. 22 OctCanterbury farmers brace for harsh summer as drought concerns grow

Written from the stories below; each sentence links to its sources.