Up to 11 tropical cyclones forecast for Southwest Pacific

Between seven and 11 named tropical cyclones are forecast for the Southwest Pacific this season. At least four of these cyclones are expected to reach severe Category 3 strength or higher.

A strong El Niño weather pattern is driving the forecast, with an increased risk of an early season start. Activity is expected to be higher near and east of the International Date Line, an area that is usually quiet. Conversely, the risk in the East Coral Sea, including Vanuatu and New Caledonia, is forecast to be normal or reduced.

New Zealand faces a normal overall risk, with the potential for one ex-tropical cyclone to pass within 550km of the country. Decaying storms are most likely to affect northern and western regions facing the Tasman Sea during late summer and autumn, particularly in February and March.

In the northern, central, and northeastern Southwest Pacific, including Samoa, Tokelau, and parts of Kiribati, there is an elevated risk. Near normal activity is forecast for Fiji and Tonga.

How it developed

• Thu 15 Oct, 6:50amTravel agents are advising Kiwi travellers to plan ahead and be mindful of potential flooding and road closures in the Pacific.

Where reports differ

• One report describes the El Niño as a 'super charged' or 'super' El Niño, while others refer to it as a strong El Niño.

Compiled from reports by Stuff, RNZ, NZ Herald and 1News.